Should I fix my energy tariff before October 2026?

The October energy price cap is rising to £1,723, and fixed tariffs are available below it. But does that mean you should fix now?

From 1 October 2026, Ofgem's energy price cap will rise by 4%.

For a typical household paying by Direct Debit and using both gas and electricity, the headline annualised figure increases from £1,663 to £1,723.

At the same time, Ofgem says fixed tariffs are available at £100 or more below the October price cap.

That makes fixing look attractive.

But there is an important question to ask before signing up:

Does a fixed tariff being £100 below the October price cap mean you'll actually save £100?

Not necessarily.

The answer depends on what you're being offered, how much energy you use, when you use it and what happens to energy prices after December.

First, what happens to the price cap in October?

For a standard variable tariff paid by Direct Debit, Ofgem's national average rates from 1 October are:

These are national averages across England, Scotland and Wales. Your actual capped rates depend on factors including where you live and how you pay.

The October cap applies only from:

1 October to 31 December 2026.

Ofgem will announce the cap for January to March 2027 by 25 November 2026.

And that matters when considering a fix.

A £1,600 fixed tariff isn't necessarily £123 cheaper

Imagine you're offered a fixed tariff with an estimated annual cost of:

£1,600

The October price-cap headline is:

£1,723

The difference is:

£123

It's tempting to conclude:

“I'll save £123 if I fix.”

But those two figures don't necessarily tell you what you'll actually spend over the next 12 months.

The £1,723 figure annualises the October–December price-cap rates as though they remained at that level for a full year.

They won't necessarily do that.

The cap is reviewed every three months.

So a fixed tariff lasting 12 months is effectively being compared with a variable tariff whose future rates are only currently known for part of those 12 months.

That's a useful comparison.

But it isn't a prediction of your exact saving.

Fixing is partly a decision about uncertainty

With a fixed tariff, your unit rates are normally fixed for the agreed period.

That doesn't mean your bill is fixed.

If you use more energy, you'll still pay more. If you use less, you'll generally pay less.

What fixing provides is greater certainty over the rates you're paying.

A standard variable tariff works differently.

The price cap limits the unit rates and standing charges suppliers can charge customers on default tariffs, but Ofgem resets the cap every three months.

That means your rates can change during the year.

So the decision isn't simply:

“Which tariff has the lowest annual figure today?”

It is also:

“How much do I value knowing what my rates will be?”

Winter makes the comparison more important

Energy consumption isn't evenly distributed throughout the year.

A household with gas central heating can use substantially more gas during the colder months than during summer.

That means the price you pay for gas during winter can have a disproportionate effect on your annual energy costs.

This is particularly relevant now because most of the October price-cap increase is being driven by gas.

Ofgem says electricity bills will remain broadly stable following the removal of VAT from domestic electricity, while gas bills for a typical household rise by around 8%. Households without gas are therefore expected to see a much smaller increase.

So two households looking at exactly the same headline 4% price-cap increase may face very different consequences.

Your own consumption matters

Suppose two households are considering the same fixed tariff.

One uses large amounts of gas for heating.

The other is all-electric.

The economics of fixing may be different for each household because the balance between gas and electricity consumption is different.

This is why comparing tariffs using only a headline annual cost can be misleading.

A more useful comparison starts with your actual annual consumption in kWh.

Then you can apply the relevant:

• electricity unit rate;

• gas unit rate;

• electricity standing charge;

• gas standing charge;

• tariff duration; and

• any exit fees.

That gives you a comparison based much more closely on your household, rather than the theoretical typical household used for the headline price-cap figure.

Don't forget exit fees

Price isn't the only consideration when fixing.

Some fixed tariffs have exit fees.

That matters because circumstances can change.

A cheaper tariff could become available.

You could move home.

Or future price caps could fall.

A tariff that saves a relatively small amount but carries substantial exit fees may therefore offer less flexibility than remaining on a variable tariff.

When comparing a fix, check both:

the potential saving

and

the cost of changing your mind.

What if energy prices fall?

This is one of the trade-offs of fixing.

If future price-cap rates rise, a competitive fixed tariff could protect you from those increases during the fixed period.

If future rates fall substantially, however, you may remain on the higher fixed rates unless you're willing and able to leave the tariff.

At the moment, we know the price cap for October to December.

We do not yet know the price cap that will apply from January 2027. Ofgem is due to announce it by 25 November.

Nobody comparing tariffs today can therefore know with certainty what the standard variable tariff will cost throughout a 12-month fixed period.

So should you fix before October?

There isn't one answer that's right for everyone.

A competitive fixed tariff may make sense if its unit rates compare favourably with the October cap and you value protection against future increases.

But don't decide solely because a tariff is advertised as “£100 cheaper than the price cap.”

Look at:

• your annual gas and electricity consumption;

• the actual unit rates you're being offered;

• standing charges;

• the length of the fix;

• exit fees;

• what you're currently paying; and

• how much you value certainty versus flexibility.

Most importantly:

compare what the tariff means for your household rather than assuming the headline saving is your personal saving.

Stay or switch?

There is another distinction that's easy to overlook.

Fixing doesn't necessarily mean switching supplier.

Your existing supplier may offer you a competitive fixed tariff.

Another supplier may offer something better.

Or remaining on your current variable tariff may suit you better once price, flexibility and your own consumption are considered.

So the useful question isn't simply:

“Should I switch?”

It's:

“Which available option leaves me better off?”

Sometimes that will mean switching.

Sometimes it will mean fixing with your existing supplier.

And sometimes staying on your existing tariff may be the better choice.

The comparison should determine the outcome — not an assumption that switching is always better.

About Likewise Compare

We're building Likewise Compare to help households understand their energy renewal options more clearly.

Rather than starting with the assumption that you should switch, we're building the comparison around a simpler question:

Would you actually be better off staying or switching?

Our comparison service isn't live yet. You can join the waitlist to hear when the first renewal checks become available.

Sources

Ofgem — Changes to the energy price cap, 1 October to 31 December 2026

Ofgem — Energy price cap will rise by 4% from October 2026

Ofgem — Energy price cap unit rates and standing charges

Ofgem — Energy price cap and standing charges explained